• Significant biomass production deficits in Senegal, Mauritania, and Chad
• High probability of abnormal transhumant movements leading to agro-pastoral conflicts
• High probability of the early onset of the pastoral lean season. Pockets of biomass production deficits in Niger (Dosso, Tahoua, Diffa) and Mali (departments of Goundam, Tombouctou, Niono, Ansongo)
• Extreme vulnerability of biomass production (negative short-term trends) in the Sahel region
• High deficits in surface water in Senegal and Mauritania

The map of biomass production anomalies in the Sahel indicates serious deficits in Mauritania, Senegal, and Chad. These areas are likely to experience forage deficits and challenging conditions for pastoralists seeking pastures and water for their herds. The limited availability of biomass and water increases the likelihood of an early, prolonged, and difficult lean season in 2018 for these areas. Herd transhumance may begin early in search of pastures and water, potentially causing tensions between agricultural and pastoral communities. Herds will likely depend on livestock feed for sustenance for a longer period than usual during the upcoming dry season. As a result, feed may be less available or more expensive.

Biomass production deficits are also observed in Mali, especially south of Ansongo, which is typically a significant concentration area for herds. This could lead to irregular transhumant movements. Notable deficits are observed across the Tombouctou region and in some parts of Mopti and Ségou. In Burkina Faso, the Sahel region shows significant deficits, reflecting a multi-year trend of chronically poor production. Similarly, negative anomalies are detected in Niger in Tahoua, Maradi, and Diffa. Of concern, the northern part of Dosso exhibits a very negative anomaly despite being a zone of high biomass production. Humanitarian challenges already evident in Diffa may be exacerbated by negative biomass anomalies.

Recommandations

Note: A guide has been prepared on using biomass data for planning early warnings and interventions. It is available at https://tinyurl.com/early-warning.

Strengthen data collection mechanisms. Field data is essential to complement satellite data when planning an intervention. Data on pasture availability, terms of trade, water availability, bushfires, and animal diseases should be regularly collected to monitor the onset of the dry season.

If regular data collection is not possible, participate in rapid participatory surveys using LEGS or PCVA methods.

• Closely monitor animal feed prices and plan for the distribution of feed stocks.
• Monitor food security and nutritional indicators in the affected areas.
• Initiate preparations to strengthen pastoral organizations and state technical services in the affected areas.
• As the lean season is likely to occur early this year, interventions should be ready before March 2018. Strengthen services providing pastoralists with information on pastures and water availability.
• Frequently visit the sites sigsahel.info and geosahel.info for updates.

Download report here

ACMAD/MESA’s 2017 forecasts for the April-July period are available. As far as West Africa is concerned these are initial forecasts and cover mostly the coastal countries/ Gulf of Guinea. Significant weather incidents for the Sahelian belt are not yet detected, but more data will be available soon. This map will be updated with new data with the release of more forecasts from ACMAD. This dataset shows ACMAD/MESA’s currently available forecasts, with ACF’s Biomass Vulnerability Index. The Vulnerability Index is a recursive indicator of biomass anomalies and identifies areas with multiple years of negative biomass production. These zones, marked as “very vulnerable” or “vulnerable”, pose particular dangers for pastoral communities, whose herds can be structurally damaged by consecutive years of poor vegetation/ forage production. To note:

• An unfavourable precipitation during the April-July period is predicted for most Burkina Faso, North-Western Nigeria, Northern Ghana and the southern region of Niger. This will likely have negative impacts on agricultural production. A late start of rains for Burkina Faso could indicate a prolonged transhumance of pastoral herds.
• Unfavorable rains during this period predicted for much of Senegal, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone
• If this trend continues during the rest of the rainy season, highly probable that these areas will have poor agricultural yields
  • Pastoral impacts could include: less availability of agricultural residue and pasture for 2018 dry season, prolonged transhumance.

    

Full resolution map available here