Category: Surveillance

Biomasse

Analysis Report on Sahel Biomass 2018

Recommandations:

  • Refer to ACF’s Early Warning Guide on Available Biomass at: tinyurl.com/early-warning
  • Conduct Rapid Assessments in Deficit Areas to Determine Community Needs.
  • Government and Humanitarian Actors: Adjust intervention plans and emergency measures to account for the current lean season at the beginning of the pastoral season in Mauritania and Senegal, potentially including the following interventions:
  • Strengthening public livestock services and pastoral organizations.
  • Distribution of animal feed.
  • Restocking/de-stocking.
  • Veterinary support and livestock vaccination.
  • Cash transfers.

Download the report here

Biomasse

Bulletin on Biomass Production and Surface Water in the Sahel, Mid-Season of the 2018 Rainy Season

  • The 2018 rainy season benefits from generally favorable rainfall across the Sahel, and biomass production follows this overall positive trend.
  • Regions in the central and northern parts of Senegal have experienced a break in precipitation since the end of July, resulting in a deficit in biomass production that impacts the development of pastures and crops. Senegal is in a negative biomass production situation for the 5th consecutive year.
  • The western regions of Mauritania, especially Brakna and Trarza, are experiencing deficits for the second consecutive year. Regions in the central and western parts of Mali (Mopti, Kayes) have a moderate biomass production deficit, which could be compensated by moderately favorable precipitation forecasts for the end of the rainy season.
  • The western regions of Niger (Tahoua) faced a delayed onset of the rainy season, leading to low biomass production early in the season. However, the situation has been improving since the beginning of August, indicating a good vegetation regeneration to reach a normal level.
  • The Eastern region of Burkina Faso records a slight deficit in biomass production, but it has been trending towards a normal production level since mid-July.

Download bulletin here

Joint Statement: Pastoral lean season 2018

The rainy season of 2017 in the Sahel was unfavorable for vegetation and water. There are currently critical deficits in biomass and water production in Senegal and Mauritania, and these deficits are significant in Mali, Niger, and Chad. Additionally, extreme deficits in surface water pose a threat to pastoral communities. One immediate consequence of these deficits will be an early dry season (usually lasting from May to August), which will be particularly challenging for the poorest populations and the most vulnerable households in the Sahel.

Download English Version

Biomasse

2017 Sahel Biomass Report

  • Significant biomass production deficits in Senegal, Mauritania, and Chad
  • High probability of abnormal transhumant movements leading to agro-pastoral conflicts
  • High probability of the early onset of the pastoral lean season. Pockets of biomass production deficits in Niger (Dosso, Tahoua, Diffa) and Mali (departments of Goundam, Tombouctou, Niono, Ansongo)
  • Extreme vulnerability of biomass production (negative short-term trends) in the Sahel region
  • High deficits in surface water in Senegal and Mauritania
Anomalie Sahel 2017

The map of biomass production anomalies in the Sahel indicates serious deficits in Mauritania, Senegal, and Chad. These areas are likely to experience forage deficits and challenging conditions for pastoralists seeking pastures and water for their herds. The limited availability of biomass and water increases the likelihood of an early, prolonged, and difficult lean season in 2018 for these areas. Herd transhumance may begin early in search of pastures and water, potentially causing tensions between agricultural and pastoral communities. Herds will likely depend on livestock feed for sustenance for a longer period than usual during the upcoming dry season. As a result, feed may be less available or more expensive.

Biomass production deficits are also observed in Mali, especially south of Ansongo, which is typically a significant concentration area for herds. This could lead to irregular transhumant movements. Notable deficits are observed across the Tombouctou region and in some parts of Mopti and Ségou. In Burkina Faso, the Sahel region shows significant deficits, reflecting a multi-year trend of chronically poor production. Similarly, negative anomalies are detected in Niger in Tahoua, Maradi, and Diffa. Of concern, the northern part of Dosso exhibits a very negative anomaly despite being a zone of high biomass production. Humanitarian challenges already evident in Diffa may be exacerbated by negative biomass anomalies.

Recommandations

Note: A guide has been prepared on using biomass data for planning early warnings and interventions. It is available at https://tinyurl.com/early-warning.

Strengthen data collection mechanisms. Field data is essential to complement satellite data when planning an intervention. Data on pasture availability, terms of trade, water availability, bushfires, and animal diseases should be regularly collected to monitor the onset of the dry season.

If regular data collection is not possible, participate in rapid participatory surveys using LEGS or PCVA methods.

  • Closely monitor animal feed prices and plan for the distribution of feed stocks.
  • Monitor food security and nutritional indicators in the affected areas.
  • Initiate preparations to strengthen pastoral organizations and state technical services in the affected areas.
  • As the lean season is likely to occur early this year, interventions should be ready before March 2018. Strengthen services providing pastoralists with information on pastures and water availability.
  • Frequently visit the sites sigsahel.info and geosahel.info for updates.

Download report here

Biomasse

West Africa Rain Forecasts and Biomass Vulnerability: April-July

ACMAD/MESA’s 2017 forecasts for the April-July period are available. As far as West Africa is concerned these are initial forecasts and cover mostly the coastal countries/ Gulf of Guinea. Significant weather incidents for the Sahelian belt are not yet detected, but more data will be available soon. This map will be updated with new data with the release of more forecasts from ACMAD. This dataset shows ACMAD/MESA’s currently available forecasts, with ACF’s Biomass Vulnerability Index. The Vulnerability Index is a recursive indicator of biomass anomalies and identifies areas with multiple years of negative biomass production. These zones, marked as “very vulnerable” or “vulnerable”, pose particular dangers for pastoral communities, whose herds can be structurally damaged by consecutive years of poor vegetation/ forage production. To note:

  • An unfavourable precipitation during the April-July period is predicted for most Burkina Faso, North-Western Nigeria, Northern Ghana and the southern region of Niger. This will likely have negative impacts on agricultural production. A late start of rains for Burkina Faso could indicate a prolonged transhumance of pastoral herds.
  • Unfavorable rains during this period predicted for much of Senegal, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone
  • If this trend continues during the rest of the rainy season, highly probable that these areas will have poor agricultural yields
    • Pastoral impacts could include: less availability of agricultural residue and pasture for 2018 dry season, prolonged transhumance.

Full resolution map available here

Publications

Nutrition surveillance using a small open cohort: experience from Burkina Faso

Authors: Mathias Altmann  , Christophe Fermanian  , Boshen Jiao  , Chiara Altare  , Martin Loada  and Mark Myatt

Background: Nutritional surveillance remains generally weak and early warning systems are needed in areas with high burden of acute under-nutrition. In order to enhance insight into nutritional surveillance, a community-based sentinel sites approach, known as the Listening Posts (LP) Project, was piloted in Burkina Faso by Action Contre la Faim (ACF). This paper presents ACF’s experience with the LP approach and investigates potential selection and observational biases.

Methods: Six primary sampling units (PSUs) were selected in each livelihood zone using the centric systematic area sampling methodology. In each PSU, 22 children aged between 6 and 24 months were selected by proximity sampling. The prevalence of GAM for each month from January 2011 to December 2013 was estimated using a Bayesian normal–normal conjugate analysis followed by PROBIT estimation. To validate the LP approach in detecting changes over time, the time trends of MUAC from LP and from five cross-sectional surveys were modelled using polynomial regression and compared by using a Wald test. The differences between prevalence estimates from the two data sources were used to assess selection and observational biases.

Results: The 95 % credible interval around GAM prevalence estimates using LP approach ranged between +6.5 %/−6.0 % on a prevalence of 36.1 % and +3.5 %/−2.9 % on a prevalence of 10.8 %. LP and cross-sectional surveys time trend models were well correlated (p = 0.6337). Although LP showed a slight but significant trend for GAM to decrease over time at a rate of −0.26 %/visit, the prevalence estimates from the two data sources showed good agreement over a 3-year period.

Conclusions: The LP methodology has proved to be valid in following trends of GAM prevalence for a period of 3 years without selection bias. However, a slight observational bias was observed, requiring a periodical reselection of the sentinel sites. This kind of surveillance project is suited to use in areas with high burden of acute under-nutrition where early warning systems are strongly needed. Advocacy is necessary to develop sustainable nutrition surveillance system and to support the use of surveillance data in guiding nutritional programs.

 

Telecharger Rapport
Telecharger Rapport