Publications Lean-Season Update- April 2017 03/05/201709/01/2024Téléchargez le PDF du bulletinPerspectives de sécurité alimentaireLa campagne agricole 2016-2017 était globalement satisfaisante, avec une production céréalière supérieure à la moyenne quinquennale de 17,5%. Cependant, de légères diminutions ont été enregistrées au Libéria (-7,5%) et en Mauritanie (-1,2%). La production de tubercules a augmenté de 10% par rapport à la moyenne de cinq ans. La production hors saison et de jardinage a fonctionné de manière habituelle, soutenue par une bonne disponibilité globale de l’eau de surface pour la saison. Ces cultures vont compléter les stocks alimentaires des ménages.The pastoral situation, pasture and watering conditions of livestock are average to satisfactory despite fodder deficits registered in a large part of the Sahelian belt notably in Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad. Transhumance movements remain normal except in the fodder-deficit areas and conflict zones, especially in the Lake Chad basin, northern Mali and northwest Niger. The significant decrease in the terms of trade for herders is having a seriously impact on access to food for pastoral populations in Niger, Tchad and Nigeria.According to the Cadre Harmonisé analysis around 9.6 million people need humanitarian assistance, among whom 8.2 million are in crisis, 1.4 million are in emergency and 44.000 are in famine.Source: WFP/VAM 2017Market functionality is satisfactory except in the Lake Chad basin due to civil insecurity. Cereals prices have started to increase significantly in Niger, Mali and Mauritania compared to the 5 year averages. Livestock prices for cattle and small ruminants are generally decreasing in the region due to the decrease in demand from Nigeria which affects herders purchasing power. The depreciation of currencies in Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone and in Ghana, as well as the civil insecurity around the Lake Chad basin, constitute the principal factors affecting prices and flows between countries. In the East basin, this situation has caused a reversal of flows of cattle, poultry, onions and other cash crops between Nigeria and Niger.Agro-Pastoral Campaign- Niger AlertSource ACF Niger Biomass Report 2016The 2016/2017 Agro-Pastoral campaign marks a considerable deterioration from last year’s favorable situation.The onset of the dry season in Niger has been met with an acute forage deficit. Predictions made in October have been confirmed by reports from the Nigerien Ministry of Livestock, OCHA and ACF field data.The lack of available pasture land is putting significant pressure on pastoral communities and there is an urgent need for animal fodder distribution. Moreover, the strong decrease in livestock’s prices and the rise of cereals’ prices has greatly deteriorated the terms of trade for herders in already fragile areas and is causing strong concerns regarding the ability for the affected population to assure their food and nutritional security. The key areas which have been identified as the most affected are Tahoua (Tchintabaradene), Maradi (Mayahi), Zinder (Tanout).Surface Water UpdateSurface water occurrence remains normal or favorable across the Sahel. The distribution of current lakes with a surface over 1km² is above the long-term average. That said, conditions remain less favorable then last year’s agropastoral campaign.Lake Chad Basin Update Conflicts and violence have caused the displacement of more than 4.9 million people, out of which 2.4 million are in the LCB areas (source: OCHA). Despite a massive scale-up of humanitarian interventions in North-East Nigeria and the liberation of some LGAs the situation remains critical and current efforts should be maintained in order to support severely food and nutrition insecure populations.It is estimated that around 43.000 people are currently in famine and this figure will most probably increase during the lean season. According to UNICEF, 1.2 million children under 5 years will suffer from acute malnutrition in the LCB area over 2017 and more than 540.000 will need immediate treatment.Nutrition OutlookThe nutritional situation during this post-harvest period remains worrying to critical in the Lake Chad basin, thenorth of Mali and in the three northeastern Nigeria States due to the deterioration of living conditions and persistent civil insecurity.In refugee and IDP areas, as well as host communities’ areas, the situation is much more alarming with prevalence above the emergency threshold. The nutritional situation could deteriorate during the lean season in most of the Sahel countries.According to UNICEF, 8.6 million children will suffer from acute malnutrition in the Sahel in 2017 and 3.3 million from its most severe form. Currently, strong risks are seen in Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad.Recommandations for ActionFournir des aliments pour animaux immédiats aux éleveurs dans les zones de Tahoua, Maradi, Zinder au Niger.De près le cours de la fluctuation au Niger, au Mali et au Tchad et se préparer à réagir rapidement en cas de besoin.Suivre le développement du pipeline RUTF par rapport à l’admission au Niger et au Mali, où le nombre prévisionnel de cas d’enfants SAM assemble assez sous-estimé.Continuer à promouvoir les fonds pour répondre aux besoins énoncés au Nigeria du Nord-Est sur la base des engagements de la conférence d’Oslo.
Biomasse West Africa Rain Forecasts and Biomass Vulnerability: April-July 01/05/201712/11/2023ACMAD/MESA’s 2017 forecasts for the April-July period are available. As far as West Africa is concerned these are initial forecasts and cover mostly the coastal countries/ Gulf of Guinea. Significant weather incidents for the Sahelian belt are not yet detected, but more data will be available soon. This map will be updated with new data with the release of more forecasts from ACMAD. This dataset shows ACMAD/MESA’s currently available forecasts, with ACF’s Biomass Vulnerability Index. The Vulnerability Index is a recursive indicator of biomass anomalies and identifies areas with multiple years of negative biomass production. These zones, marked as “very vulnerable” or “vulnerable”, pose particular dangers for pastoral communities, whose herds can be structurally damaged by consecutive years of poor vegetation/ forage production. To note:An unfavourable precipitation during the April-July period is predicted for most Burkina Faso, North-Western Nigeria, Northern Ghana and the southern region of Niger. This will likely have negative impacts on agricultural production. A late start of rains for Burkina Faso could indicate a prolonged transhumance of pastoral herds.Unfavorable rains during this period predicted for much of Senegal, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra LeoneIf this trend continues during the rest of the rainy season, highly probable that these areas will have poor agricultural yieldsPastoral impacts could include: less availability of agricultural residue and pasture for 2018 dry season, prolonged transhumance. Full resolution map available here
Publications Nutrition surveillance using a small open cohort: experience from Burkina Faso 02/12/201609/01/2024Authors: Mathias Altmann , Christophe Fermanian , Boshen Jiao , Chiara Altare , Martin Loada and Mark MyattBackground: Nutritional surveillance remains generally weak and early warning systems are needed in areas with high burden of acute under-nutrition. In order to enhance insight into nutritional surveillance, a community-based sentinel sites approach, known as the Listening Posts (LP) Project, was piloted in Burkina Faso by Action Contre la Faim (ACF). This paper presents ACF’s experience with the LP approach and investigates potential selection and observational biases.Methods: Six primary sampling units (PSUs) were selected in each livelihood zone using the centric systematic area sampling methodology. In each PSU, 22 children aged between 6 and 24 months were selected by proximity sampling. The prevalence of GAM for each month from January 2011 to December 2013 was estimated using a Bayesian normal–normal conjugate analysis followed by PROBIT estimation. To validate the LP approach in detecting changes over time, the time trends of MUAC from LP and from five cross-sectional surveys were modelled using polynomial regression and compared by using a Wald test. The differences between prevalence estimates from the two data sources were used to assess selection and observational biases.Results: The 95 % credible interval around GAM prevalence estimates using LP approach ranged between +6.5 %/−6.0 % on a prevalence of 36.1 % and +3.5 %/−2.9 % on a prevalence of 10.8 %. LP and cross-sectional surveys time trend models were well correlated (p = 0.6337). Although LP showed a slight but significant trend for GAM to decrease over time at a rate of −0.26 %/visit, the prevalence estimates from the two data sources showed good agreement over a 3-year period.Conclusions: The LP methodology has proved to be valid in following trends of GAM prevalence for a period of 3 years without selection bias. However, a slight observational bias was observed, requiring a periodical reselection of the sentinel sites. This kind of surveillance project is suited to use in areas with high burden of acute under-nutrition where early warning systems are strongly needed. Advocacy is necessary to develop sustainable nutrition surveillance system and to support the use of surveillance data in guiding nutritional programs. Telecharger Rapport
Biomass Analysis- Sahel 2013 01/11/201309/01/2024Biomass Production Analysis – Rainy Season 2013Report in English downloadable here